A shattered 'big bang'

The story now is about personalities, not politics, not parties. It's barely even about the army, after all the outpourings of recent months. Politics is working overtime choosing a candidate for the presidency, but that is petty politics.

The day's lead story provides the goods that the media consume with saliva dribbling from their mouths. What will the court decide this morning about Haim Ramon? What does attorney David Libai have to say behind closed doors about the Katsav case? The Internet has posted the face of A., the complainant who worked with Katsav in the president's bureau. There is gossip implied in the talk about the risk being taken by Rabbi Israel Meir Lau in his bid to succeed a president who is suspected of dalliances with women. Petty and marginal issues, all of them. The important story doesn't interest a soul.

The important story of course is the disintegration of the political "big bang" created by former prime minister Ariel Sharon 14 months ago. Only the fate of one person, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, can have an impact on the political system. If he is brought down by the two investigations being conducted against him, the entire game will change.

Shimon Peres as president? That's desirable, but it's an inconsequential episode. Those who want to preserve the purity of voting must, under these special circumstances, give up their sudden opposition to amending the law, and prefer openly raised hands for the sake of a new president. Amir Peretz is leaving the Defense Ministry? Israel is not an orphan. The finance minister is on shaky ground? The state won't rise or fall on that.

But the collapse of the political establishment is a matter that has been neglected for too long. The Knesset is pathetic. There is a ruling party that will be remembered as a strange political creature, one born without institutions, without internal elections, without a profile, and of course without roots. Kadima is a disgrace of a movement that is leading a country in trouble.

Olmert and Kadima are collapsing in the polls. It is difficult to imagine what could put them back on their feet. Recently there have been many stories from behind the scenes about MKs who are considering deserting a shaky party that has plummeted to third place in the public's estimation.

The "big bang" is shattering. The seats that have been torn from Kadima in opinion polls - 17 out of 29 - are going mainly to Likud and Labor. But even these two parties are pale shadows of their past. The round of ministerial changes that Olmert is planning is a patch on a ragged suit of clothes. What difference will it make to the leadership of the nation whether Ehud Barak or Ami Ayalon is defense minister? And what difference will it make, after the court weighs in today, whether Ramon will or will not be the justice minister? And if Finance Minister Abraham Hirchson does not last? There's no connection between those things and the ruined political infrastructure.

A clear sign of the gravity of the situation is the fact that even new elections will not help. The parties are about as ready to go to the polls as half of Israel's high school graduates are ready for the matriculation exams. Labor can't form a government in the foreseeable future, or even in the distant future. A Likud victory will yield a right-wing government. The time for that is never ripe, and certainly not now, when we are in need of new momentum to repair the criminal negligence of the Olmert government in its relations with the Palestinian Authority. Likud chair Benjamin Netanyahu will deliver polished speeches against talking to a leadership in the territories that is engaged in mutual killing in the streets.

Unfortunately, in light of the deja vu and the disappointment of recent years, Israeli democracy finds itself in a situation where what it needs most - a change at the polls - will only damage it further at present. Therefore, there is no choice but to allow it to falter. To give civil society time to understand that it has an obligation to contribute to a different framework for the party system that has changed so much for the worse.

And in the meantime, Peres to the presidency, a general from Labor to defense. A few changes of ministers here and there. That's what there is. Unless the prime minister is forced to suspend himself or to resign because of the investigations, and makes room for a new leadership headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, with different ministers for all the senior portfolios. But after everything we have already seen, who would want to wish on himself having such a serious thing happen to the prime minister as well?

By Gideon Samet